Fed Rate Probability History

FedWatch Tracker publishes daily closing snapshots of rate-hike, hold and rate-cut probabilities for upcoming FOMC meetings, plus one-year meeting-level history and downloadable data. One point = one US trading day, taken after the 16:00 CT close.

Latest data point: (US trading day)
This is an independent research and data-tracking project. It is not affiliated with CME Group or the Federal Reserve. Values are scheduled snapshots, not guaranteed intraday real-time quotes.

Upcoming meetings

2026-12-09 FOMC

Hike 77.98% · Hold 22.02% · Cut 0.00%

Most likely target range: 4.00%–4.25% (77.98%)

2027-01-27 FOMC

Hike 97.50% · Hold 2.50% · Cut 0.00%

Most likely target range: 4.00%–4.25% (97.50%)

2027-03-17 FOMC

Hike 100.00% · Hold 0.00% · Cut 0.00%

Most likely target range: 4.25%–4.50% (54.14%)

Explore the data