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2027-01-27 FOMC 会议概率历史

追踪市场对 2027-01-27 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。

最新数据点：（美东交易日） · 首个有效历史点：2025-12-11 · 有效历史点：229
累计加息概率97.50%
累计维持概率2.50%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 4.00%–4.25%，概率 97.50%；较上一有效交易日变化 +30.00 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +0.50 pp。

最新目标利率区间概率分布

目标利率区间概率
3.50%–3.75%0.00%
3.75%–4.00%250.00%
4.00%–4.25%9750.00%
4.25%–4.50%0.00%
4.50%–4.75%0.00%

最大概率区间历史

“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。

美东交易日最大概率区间该区间概率
4.00%–4.25%97.50%
4.00%–4.25%67.50%
4.00%–4.25%95.50%
4.00%–4.25%93.50%
4.00%–4.25%96.50%
4.00%–4.25%97.00%
4.00%–4.25%94.00%
4.00%–4.25%54.00%
4.00%–4.25%66.80%
4.00%–4.25%73.48%
4.00%–4.25%84.59%
4.00%–4.25%86.20%
4.00%–4.25%51.05%
4.00%–4.25%51.84%
4.00%–4.25%84.84%
4.00%–4.25%97.16%
4.00%–4.25%96.88%
4.25%–4.50%64.66%
4.25%–4.50%51.70%
4.25%–4.50%50.59%
4.00%–4.25%67.84%
4.00%–4.25%62.84%
4.00%–4.25%61.63%
4.00%–4.25%56.63%
4.00%–4.25%71.41%
4.00%–4.25%82.86%
4.00%–4.25%59.77%
4.25%–4.50%75.09%
4.25%–4.50%88.05%
4.25%–4.50%80.70%
4.25%–4.50%96.21%
4.25%–4.50%97.86%
4.25%–4.50%98.64%
4.25%–4.50%60.14%
4.25%–4.50%80.36%
4.25%–4.50%72.14%
4.25%–4.50%70.14%
4.25%–4.50%69.82%
4.00%–4.25%56.00%
4.00%–4.25%58.00%
4.00%–4.25%65.00%
4.00%–4.25%60.00%
4.00%–4.25%40.20%
4.00%–4.25%38.86%
4.00%–4.25%37.95%
4.00%–4.25%37.44%
3.75%–4.00%37.17%
4.00%–4.25%40.12%
4.00%–4.25%41.35%
4.00%–4.25%40.22%
4.00%–4.25%39.18%
3.75%–4.00%41.13%
3.75%–4.00%41.49%
3.75%–4.00%41.86%
3.75%–4.00%40.72%
3.75%–4.00%41.83%
3.75%–4.00%42.81%
3.75%–4.00%42.90%
3.75%–4.00%42.48%
3.75%–4.00%42.75%
3.75%–4.00%42.90%
3.75%–4.00%42.87%
3.75%–4.00%41.87%
3.75%–4.00%40.56%
3.75%–4.00%39.08%
3.75%–4.00%41.02%
3.75%–4.00%37.32%
3.75%–4.00%41.71%
3.75%–4.00%40.95%
4.00%–4.25%37.12%
4.00%–4.25%38.28%
3.75%–4.00%39.99%
3.75%–4.00%38.41%
4.00%–4.25%36.23%
4.00%–4.25%37.34%
4.00%–4.25%37.51%
4.00%–4.25%37.55%
4.00%–4.25%36.61%
4.00%–4.25%35.28%
3.75%–4.00%36.98%
3.75%–4.00%39.64%
3.75%–4.00%41.30%
3.75%–4.00%42.37%
3.75%–4.00%39.62%
4.00%–4.25%35.89%
3.75%–4.00%34.62%
3.75%–4.00%37.84%
3.75%–4.00%35.19%
3.75%–4.00%37.98%
3.75%–4.00%40.17%
3.75%–4.00%39.36%
3.75%–4.00%35.97%
3.75%–4.00%36.98%
3.75%–4.00%38.71%
3.75%–4.00%40.48%
3.75%–4.00%38.32%
3.75%–4.00%37.64%
4.00%–4.25%34.37%
4.00%–4.25%35.85%
4.00%–4.25%34.56%
3.75%–4.00%37.10%
3.75%–4.00%42.30%
3.75%–4.00%42.05%
3.75%–4.00%41.83%
3.75%–4.00%41.32%
3.75%–4.00%40.99%
3.75%–4.00%41.14%
3.75%–4.00%39.52%
3.75%–4.00%39.69%
3.50%–3.75%40.11%
3.75%–4.00%41.22%
3.75%–4.00%40.96%
3.75%–4.00%41.06%
3.50%–3.75%48.32%
3.50%–3.75%46.82%
3.50%–3.75%44.83%
3.50%–3.75%41.52%
3.75%–4.00%40.60%
3.75%–4.00%41.22%
3.50%–3.75%43.05%
3.75%–4.00%41.21%
3.75%–4.00%41.20%
3.75%–4.00%40.90%
3.50%–3.75%54.09%
3.50%–3.75%58.25%
3.50%–3.75%53.62%
3.50%–3.75%66.41%
3.50%–3.75%70.59%
3.50%–3.75%64.31%
3.50%–3.75%67.92%
3.50%–3.75%55.22%
3.50%–3.75%52.79%
3.50%–3.75%71.72%
3.50%–3.75%72.57%
3.50%–3.75%76.47%
3.50%–3.75%77.19%
3.50%–3.75%70.15%
3.50%–3.75%61.25%
3.50%–3.75%75.85%
3.50%–3.75%71.73%
3.50%–3.75%67.29%
3.50%–3.75%50.14%
3.50%–3.75%45.92%
3.50%–3.75%67.21%
3.50%–3.75%62.14%
3.50%–3.75%61.30%
3.50%–3.75%65.28%
3.50%–3.75%70.47%
3.50%–3.75%66.30%
3.50%–3.75%72.36%
3.50%–3.75%77.38%
3.50%–3.75%73.03%
3.50%–3.75%72.80%
3.50%–3.75%68.25%
3.50%–3.75%70.93%
3.50%–3.75%75.99%
3.50%–3.75%72.44%
3.50%–3.75%52.96%
3.50%–3.75%70.99%
3.50%–3.75%60.22%
3.50%–3.75%72.72%
3.50%–3.75%63.99%
3.50%–3.75%78.54%
3.50%–3.75%44.91%
3.25%–3.50%40.59%
3.25%–3.50%40.29%
3.25%–3.50%40.28%
3.50%–3.75%46.96%
3.25%–3.50%38.27%
3.25%–3.50%32.67%
3.25%–3.50%34.75%
3.00%–3.25%32.02%
3.25%–3.50%34.86%
3.00%–3.25%32.71%
3.00%–3.25%32.93%
3.00%–3.25%32.79%
2.75%–3.00%29.07%
3.00%–3.25%31.86%
3.00%–3.25%32.54%
3.00%–3.25%31.66%
3.00%–3.25%30.39%
3.00%–3.25%31.90%
3.00%–3.25%31.26%
3.00%–3.25%31.37%
3.00%–3.25%30.31%
2.75%–3.00%29.47%
3.00%–3.25%31.69%
3.00%–3.25%33.00%
3.00%–3.25%31.44%
3.00%–3.25%32.74%
3.00%–3.25%33.20%
3.00%–3.25%32.50%
3.00%–3.25%33.38%
3.00%–3.25%33.19%
3.00%–3.25%33.32%
3.00%–3.25%33.39%
3.00%–3.25%33.11%
3.00%–3.25%33.30%
3.00%–3.25%33.20%
3.00%–3.25%32.63%
3.00%–3.25%32.24%
3.25%–3.50%32.38%
3.00%–3.25%32.22%
3.00%–3.25%32.29%
3.00%–3.25%32.11%
3.00%–3.25%32.60%
3.00%–3.25%32.19%
3.00%–3.25%32.48%
3.00%–3.25%32.43%
3.00%–3.25%32.72%
3.00%–3.25%31.64%
3.00%–3.25%31.01%
3.00%–3.25%31.41%
3.00%–3.25%31.21%
3.00%–3.25%31.76%
3.00%–3.25%31.58%
3.00%–3.25%30.96%
3.00%–3.25%31.05%
3.00%–3.25%31.44%
3.00%–3.25%32.05%
3.00%–3.25%32.09%
3.00%–3.25%31.29%
3.00%–3.25%30.77%
3.00%–3.25%29.84%
3.00%–3.25%30.53%
3.00%–3.25%30.51%
3.00%–3.25%31.40%
3.00%–3.25%31.80%
3.00%–3.25%31.71%

来源与口径

数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。