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2026-12-09 FOMC 会议概率历史

追踪市场对 2026-12-09 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。

最新数据点：（美东交易日） · 首个有效历史点：2025-10-30 · 有效历史点：258
累计加息概率77.98%
累计维持概率22.02%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 4.00%–4.25%，概率 77.98%；较上一有效交易日变化 +7.04 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +5.98 pp。

最新目标利率区间概率分布

目标利率区间概率
3.50%–3.75%0.00%
3.75%–4.00%2202.00%
4.00%–4.25%7798.00%
4.25%–4.50%0.00%
4.50%–4.75%0.00%

最大概率区间历史

“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。

美东交易日最大概率区间该区间概率
4.00%–4.25%77.98%
4.00%–4.25%70.94%
4.00%–4.25%81.54%
4.00%–4.25%78.94%
4.00%–4.25%72.50%
4.00%–4.25%72.00%
4.00%–4.25%73.85%
4.00%–4.25%79.41%
4.00%–4.25%89.57%
4.00%–4.25%89.78%
4.00%–4.25%80.97%
4.00%–4.25%81.60%
4.00%–4.25%99.28%
4.00%–4.25%98.91%
4.00%–4.25%87.14%
4.00%–4.25%93.65%
4.00%–4.25%81.95%
4.00%–4.25%80.12%
4.00%–4.25%89.64%
4.00%–4.25%93.04%
4.00%–4.25%98.84%
4.00%–4.25%98.12%
4.00%–4.25%98.37%
4.00%–4.25%96.81%
4.00%–4.25%90.93%
4.00%–4.25%95.49%
4.00%–4.25%94.21%
4.00%–4.25%83.47%
4.00%–4.25%72.80%
4.25%–4.50%51.56%
4.00%–4.25%56.60%
4.25%–4.50%51.93%
4.00%–4.25%51.88%
4.00%–4.25%67.41%
4.00%–4.25%66.72%
4.00%–4.25%66.89%
4.00%–4.25%74.63%
4.00%–4.25%72.66%
4.00%–4.25%91.59%
4.00%–4.25%91.30%
4.00%–4.25%95.96%
4.00%–4.25%99.04%
4.00%–4.25%46.26%
3.75%–4.00%39.36%
3.75%–4.00%40.94%
3.75%–4.00%41.36%
3.75%–4.00%43.05%
4.00%–4.25%40.92%
4.00%–4.25%43.16%
4.00%–4.25%40.79%
4.00%–4.25%39.52%
3.75%–4.00%45.10%
3.75%–4.00%45.22%
3.75%–4.00%45.07%
3.75%–4.00%44.75%
3.75%–4.00%45.32%
3.75%–4.00%45.03%
3.75%–4.00%45.28%
3.75%–4.00%45.19%
3.75%–4.00%45.41%
3.75%–4.00%45.28%
3.75%–4.00%44.57%
3.75%–4.00%45.07%
3.75%–4.00%44.26%
3.75%–4.00%43.56%
3.75%–4.00%44.50%
3.75%–4.00%41.49%
3.75%–4.00%44.53%
3.75%–4.00%43.99%
3.75%–4.00%42.49%
3.75%–4.00%40.71%
3.75%–4.00%45.21%
3.75%–4.00%43.74%
4.00%–4.25%36.27%
4.00%–4.25%38.32%
4.00%–4.25%38.75%
4.00%–4.25%39.13%
4.00%–4.25%37.19%
3.75%–4.00%37.25%
3.75%–4.00%40.94%
3.75%–4.00%43.20%
3.75%–4.00%44.24%
3.75%–4.00%44.42%
3.75%–4.00%43.09%
4.00%–4.25%36.45%
3.75%–4.00%37.82%
3.75%–4.00%40.91%
3.75%–4.00%38.32%
3.75%–4.00%40.95%
3.75%–4.00%42.29%
3.75%–4.00%42.12%
3.75%–4.00%39.04%
3.75%–4.00%39.06%
3.75%–4.00%40.62%
3.75%–4.00%41.77%
3.75%–4.00%40.25%
3.75%–4.00%40.11%
3.75%–4.00%37.27%
4.00%–4.25%36.30%
3.75%–4.00%36.08%
3.75%–4.00%40.46%
3.75%–4.00%42.61%
3.50%–3.75%42.69%
3.75%–4.00%42.33%
3.50%–3.75%41.84%
3.75%–4.00%42.90%
3.75%–4.00%43.33%
3.75%–4.00%42.57%
3.75%–4.00%43.02%
3.50%–3.75%47.37%
3.75%–4.00%41.26%
3.50%–3.75%44.88%
3.50%–3.75%46.24%
3.50%–3.75%54.56%
3.50%–3.75%51.55%
3.50%–3.75%50.64%
3.50%–3.75%48.15%
3.75%–4.00%42.52%
3.75%–4.00%41.40%
3.50%–3.75%51.03%
3.75%–4.00%41.96%
3.50%–3.75%47.51%
3.50%–3.75%48.74%
3.50%–3.75%59.43%
3.50%–3.75%65.72%
3.50%–3.75%61.79%
3.50%–3.75%72.75%
3.50%–3.75%75.06%
3.50%–3.75%70.08%
3.50%–3.75%70.60%
3.50%–3.75%62.82%
3.50%–3.75%61.94%
3.50%–3.75%77.72%
3.50%–3.75%80.23%
3.50%–3.75%88.49%
3.50%–3.75%80.02%
3.50%–3.75%70.15%
3.50%–3.75%61.25%
3.50%–3.75%75.85%
3.50%–3.75%73.41%
3.50%–3.75%70.53%
3.50%–3.75%53.85%
3.50%–3.75%49.28%
3.50%–3.75%70.45%
3.50%–3.75%66.66%
3.50%–3.75%65.78%
3.50%–3.75%68.39%
3.50%–3.75%75.56%
3.50%–3.75%71.10%
3.50%–3.75%77.66%
3.50%–3.75%80.87%
3.50%–3.75%74.47%
3.50%–3.75%76.30%
3.50%–3.75%73.24%
3.50%–3.75%76.11%
3.50%–3.75%79.41%
3.50%–3.75%72.44%
3.50%–3.75%54.17%
3.50%–3.75%72.22%
3.50%–3.75%60.22%
3.50%–3.75%74.24%
3.50%–3.75%63.99%
3.50%–3.75%80.26%
3.50%–3.75%47.07%
3.25%–3.50%41.07%
3.25%–3.50%40.87%
3.25%–3.50%40.28%
3.50%–3.75%46.96%
3.25%–3.50%38.98%
3.25%–3.50%33.98%
3.25%–3.50%36.02%
3.25%–3.50%32.45%
3.25%–3.50%35.72%
3.00%–3.25%32.75%
3.00%–3.25%33.36%
3.00%–3.25%33.70%
3.00%–3.25%30.80%
3.00%–3.25%33.14%
3.00%–3.25%33.68%
3.00%–3.25%33.20%
3.00%–3.25%32.19%
3.00%–3.25%33.22%
3.00%–3.25%32.63%
3.00%–3.25%32.52%
3.00%–3.25%31.80%
3.00%–3.25%30.22%
3.00%–3.25%32.52%
3.00%–3.25%33.63%
3.00%–3.25%31.72%
3.00%–3.25%32.74%
3.00%–3.25%33.20%
3.00%–3.25%32.50%
3.00%–3.25%33.38%
3.00%–3.25%33.19%
3.00%–3.25%33.32%
3.00%–3.25%33.39%
3.00%–3.25%33.11%
3.00%–3.25%33.30%
3.00%–3.25%33.20%
3.00%–3.25%32.94%
3.00%–3.25%32.24%
3.25%–3.50%32.38%
3.00%–3.25%32.22%
3.00%–3.25%32.29%
3.00%–3.25%32.11%
3.00%–3.25%32.70%
3.00%–3.25%32.41%
3.00%–3.25%32.69%
3.00%–3.25%32.59%
3.00%–3.25%32.88%
3.00%–3.25%31.88%
3.00%–3.25%31.28%
3.00%–3.25%31.41%
3.00%–3.25%31.21%
3.00%–3.25%31.76%
3.00%–3.25%31.58%
3.00%–3.25%30.96%
3.00%–3.25%31.05%
3.00%–3.25%31.57%
3.00%–3.25%32.22%
3.00%–3.25%32.29%
3.00%–3.25%31.29%
3.00%–3.25%30.77%
3.00%–3.25%29.91%
3.00%–3.25%30.63%
3.00%–3.25%30.60%
3.00%–3.25%31.55%
3.00%–3.25%31.99%
3.00%–3.25%31.88%
3.00%–3.25%31.69%
3.00%–3.25%30.89%
3.00%–3.25%30.77%
3.00%–3.25%30.08%
3.00%–3.25%29.56%
3.00%–3.25%27.69%
3.00%–3.25%28.48%
3.00%–3.25%29.23%
3.00%–3.25%27.77%
2.75%–3.00%27.51%
2.75%–3.00%28.06%
2.75%–3.00%27.69%
2.75%–3.00%26.99%
3.00%–3.25%26.34%
3.00%–3.25%27.97%
3.00%–3.25%27.64%
3.00%–3.25%27.98%
3.00%–3.25%28.17%
3.00%–3.25%28.13%
3.00%–3.25%27.89%
3.00%–3.25%27.67%
3.00%–3.25%28.42%
3.00%–3.25%28.09%
3.00%–3.25%28.43%
3.00%–3.25%28.95%
3.00%–3.25%28.47%
3.00%–3.25%28.71%
3.00%–3.25%28.60%
3.00%–3.25%28.92%

来源与口径

数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。