2027-03-17 FOMC 会议概率历史
追踪市场对 2027-03-17 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。
累计加息概率100.00%
累计维持概率0.00%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 4.25%–4.50%，概率 54.14%；较上一有效交易日变化 -13.22 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 -1.72 pp。
最新目标利率区间概率分布
| 目标利率区间 | 概率 |
|---|---|
| 3.50%–3.75% | 0.00% |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 0.00% |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 4586.00% |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 5414.00% |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 0.00% |
最大概率区间历史
“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。
| 美东交易日 | 最大概率区间 | 该区间概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25%–4.50% | 54.14% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 67.36% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 78.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 65.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 58.14% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 55.86% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 56.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 82.93% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 96.23% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 92.59% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 76.27% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 72.91% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 78.84% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 78.63% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 74.70% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 90.91% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 84.95% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 65.13% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 77.80% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 77.41% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 88.41% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 98.27% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 96.98% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 87.41% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 83.41% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 85.64% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 99.55% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 51.05% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 61.27% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 81.09% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 57.07% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 73.36% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 72.57% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 63.36% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 59.71% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 59.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 78.71% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 67.04% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 97.57% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 94.71% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 89.14% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 98.14% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 34.68% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.24% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.41% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.52% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 35.82% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.49% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.58% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.96% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.08% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.11% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.02% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 37.32% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.07% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.59% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.11% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.06% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 38.49% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 38.29% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.04% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.78% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.60% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.78% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.59% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.47% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.06% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.99% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 35.22% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 37.11% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 36.79% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 35.65% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 35.13% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 35.40% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 35.43% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.99% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.54% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.96% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.70% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.34% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.35% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 37.11% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.10% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.14% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.45% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.33% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.98% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.91% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.77% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.76% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.74% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.47% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.52% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.20% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 38.17% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.78% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.12% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.32% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.75% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.23% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.02% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 41.13% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.84% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.68% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.79% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.82% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 37.25% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.83% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.25% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.79% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.19% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.42% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.76% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.42% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.91% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.82% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.55% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.97% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 39.51% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.05% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 38.12% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.50% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 40.61% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 44.94% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 47.13% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 42.66% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 56.59% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 62.31% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 55.32% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 62.48% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 48.64% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 46.20% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 64.72% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 65.65% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 66.46% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 76.17% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 68.65% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 58.74% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 75.85% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 68.96% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 62.00% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 45.27% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 42.41% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 64.62% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 58.64% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 57.83% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 61.50% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 66.43% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 61.20% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 66.84% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 74.58% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 71.89% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 70.00% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 65.64% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 69.63% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 73.25% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 70.50% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 52.28% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 69.10% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 59.68% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 70.32% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 62.56% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 74.34% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 40.93% | |
| 3.25%–3.50% | 39.56% | |
| 3.25%–3.50% | 39.84% | |
| 3.25%–3.50% | 40.23% | |
| 3.50%–3.75% | 44.88% | |
| 3.25%–3.50% | 36.87% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 31.74% | |
| 3.25%–3.50% | 33.12% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 31.94% | |
| 3.25%–3.50% | 32.38% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 32.32% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 31.86% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 31.20% | |
| 2.75%–3.00% | 28.99% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 30.31% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 31.12% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 29.55% | |
| 2.75%–3.00% | 28.72% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 30.84% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 30.16% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 30.24% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 29.14% | |
| 2.75%–3.00% | 29.40% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 31.14% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 32.56% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 30.89% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 32.74% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 33.20% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 32.50% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 33.38% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 33.19% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 33.32% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 33.39% | |
| 3.00%–3.25% | 33.11% |
来源与口径
数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。