2027-12-08 FOMC 会议概率历史
追踪市场对 2027-12-08 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。
累计加息概率100.00%
累计维持概率0.00%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 4.25%–4.50%，概率 71.72%；较上一有效交易日变化 +0.22 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +21.07 pp。
最新目标利率区间概率分布
| 目标利率区间 | 概率 |
|---|---|
| 3.50%–3.75% | 0.00% |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 0.00% |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 2828.00% |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 7172.00% |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 0.00% |
最大概率区间历史
“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。
| 美东交易日 | 最大概率区间 | 该区间概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25%–4.50% | 71.72% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 71.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 66.67% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 53.20% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 72.07% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 50.65% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 70.57% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 82.30% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 95.67% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 74.74% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 65.02% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 60.06% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 99.25% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 98.10% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 94.94% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 75.81% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 83.08% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 75.73% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 82.00% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 95.98% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 50.80% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 57.53% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 57.45% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 66.81% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 88.59% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 81.06% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 54.19% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 73.39% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 76.90% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 56.78% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 51.13% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 67.77% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 69.56% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 94.64% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 94.43% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 96.64% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 55.10% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 97.66% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 71.91% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 57.91% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 69.74% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 65.91% |
来源与口径
数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。