2027-10-27 FOMC 会议概率历史
追踪市场对 2027-10-27 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。
累计加息概率100.00%
累计维持概率0.00%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 4.25%–4.50%，概率 86.50%；较上一有效交易日变化 +1.00 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +10.50 pp。
最新目标利率区间概率分布
| 目标利率区间 | 概率 |
|---|---|
| 3.50%–3.75% | 0.00% |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 0.00% |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 0.00% |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 8650.00% |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 1350.00% |
最大概率区间历史
“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。
| 美东交易日 | 最大概率区间 | 该区间概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25%–4.50% | 86.50% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 85.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 87.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 87.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 87.50% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 76.00% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 87.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 84.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 82.20% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 85.52% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 70.41% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 64.20% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 63.95% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 57.16% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 84.84% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 60.84% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 50.87% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 70.34% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 67.70% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 73.59% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 90.16% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 90.16% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 97.63% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 97.63% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 97.41% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 96.86% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 96.77% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 92.09% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 97.95% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 96.70% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 59.21% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 75.86% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 77.64% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 83.86% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 83.64% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 85.86% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 90.14% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 84.18% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 80.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 66.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 63.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 74.00% |
来源与口径
数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。