2027-09-15 FOMC 会议概率历史
追踪市场对 2027-09-15 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。
累计加息概率100.00%
累计维持概率0.00%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 4.25%–4.50%，概率 82.50%；较上一有效交易日变化 +5.15 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +32.20 pp。
最新目标利率区间概率分布
| 目标利率区间 | 概率 |
|---|---|
| 3.50%–3.75% | 0.00% |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 0.00% |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 1750.00% |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 8250.00% |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 0.00% |
最大概率区间历史
“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。
| 美东交易日 | 最大概率区间 | 该区间概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25%–4.50% | 82.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 77.35% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 61.98% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 94.28% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 56.24% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 50.30% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 63.63% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 94.19% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 94.84% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 90.11% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 69.26% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 51.57% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 57.87% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 85.32% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 82.54% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 76.01% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 99.75% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 71.49% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 59.44% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 59.59% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 76.65% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 76.65% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 72.48% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 52.96% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 53.00% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 59.29% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 56.69% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 97.80% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 91.50% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 81.99% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 59.21% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 86.19% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 73.05% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 82.71% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 77.90% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 74.38% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 82.11% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 78.44% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 80.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 66.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 64.15% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 74.00% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 29.74% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 29.37% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 30.49% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 31.15% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.24% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 30.97% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 30.88% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.06% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.62% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.80% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.45% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.53% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.76% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.28% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.88% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.15% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.15% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.91% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.69% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.69% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.15% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.73% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.25% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 32.43% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.45% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.31% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 32.40% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.04% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.92% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.31% |
来源与口径
数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。