2027-07-28 FOMC 会议概率历史
追踪市场对 2027-07-28 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。
累计加息概率100.00%
累计维持概率0.00%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 4.25%–4.50%，概率 83.50%；较上一有效交易日变化 +33.00 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +6.50 pp。
最新目标利率区间概率分布
| 目标利率区间 | 概率 |
|---|---|
| 3.50%–3.75% | 0.00% |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 0.00% |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 1650.00% |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 8350.00% |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 0.00% |
最大概率区间历史
“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。
| 美东交易日 | 最大概率区间 | 该区间概率 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25%–4.50% | 83.50% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 50.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 83.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 72.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 72.50% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 77.00% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 84.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 67.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 88.20% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 67.52% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 51.59% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 51.80% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 92.05% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 98.16% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 91.84% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 88.16% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 88.12% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 81.34% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 91.30% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 91.41% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 91.84% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 88.16% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 88.37% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 82.63% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 77.41% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 80.86% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 90.77% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 62.09% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 62.05% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 78.30% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 52.79% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 69.86% | |
| 4.75%–5.00% | 59.64% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 87.86% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 85.64% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 87.86% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 90.14% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 84.18% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 72.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 60.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 57.00% | |
| 4.50%–4.75% | 68.00% | |
| 4.25%–4.50% | 30.58% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 29.68% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 31.04% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 31.68% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.24% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 30.97% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 30.88% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.06% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.62% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.80% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.45% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.53% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.76% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.28% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.88% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.15% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.34% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.07% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.91% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 37.03% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.18% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.35% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.82% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.82% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.55% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.47% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.31% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 35.67% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.67% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.58% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.94% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 34.02% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.91% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.22% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.37% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 33.33% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.93% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.95% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.86% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.13% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 36.83% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 32.38% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.28% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 31.88% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 32.97% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 31.14% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.09% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.92% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.43% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 31.87% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 33.10% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.72% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 35.93% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.60% | |
| 3.75%–4.00% | 34.07% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 31.81% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 32.36% | |
| 4.00%–4.25% | 31.10% |
来源与口径
数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。