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2027-06-09 FOMC 会议概率历史

追踪市场对 2027-06-09 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。

最新数据点：（美东交易日） · 首个有效历史点：2026-04-30 · 有效历史点：134
累计加息概率100.00%
累计维持概率0.00%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 4.25%–4.50%，概率 76.86%；较上一有效交易日变化 +21.82 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 -3.46 pp。

最新目标利率区间概率分布

目标利率区间概率
3.50%–3.75%0.00%
3.75%–4.00%0.00%
4.00%–4.25%2314.00%
4.25%–4.50%7686.00%
4.50%–4.75%0.00%

最大概率区间历史

“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。

美东交易日最大概率区间该区间概率
4.25%–4.50%76.86%
4.25%–4.50%55.04%
4.25%–4.50%81.29%
4.25%–4.50%65.86%
4.25%–4.50%80.25%
4.25%–4.50%80.32%
4.25%–4.50%60.75%
4.50%–4.75%69.21%
4.50%–4.75%79.34%
4.50%–4.75%69.73%
4.25%–4.50%52.70%
4.25%–4.50%73.95%
4.50%–4.75%96.87%
4.50%–4.75%98.16%
4.50%–4.75%97.09%
4.50%–4.75%77.09%
4.50%–4.75%84.80%
4.50%–4.75%94.63%
4.50%–4.75%98.73%
4.50%–4.75%95.84%
4.50%–4.75%94.87%
4.50%–4.75%77.09%
4.50%–4.75%79.52%
4.50%–4.75%94.13%
4.50%–4.75%97.13%
4.50%–4.75%99.68%
4.50%–4.75%90.41%
4.50%–4.75%61.16%
4.50%–4.75%62.30%
4.75%–5.00%65.02%
4.50%–4.75%71.61%
4.75%–5.00%57.68%
4.50%–4.75%50.32%
4.50%–4.75%97.82%
4.50%–4.75%95.61%
4.50%–4.75%92.29%
4.50%–4.75%73.54%
4.25%–4.50%70.54%
4.50%–4.75%60.93%
4.25%–4.50%51.07%
4.25%–4.50%52.96%
4.50%–4.75%56.93%
4.25%–4.50%31.47%
4.00%–4.25%30.64%
4.00%–4.25%31.64%
4.00%–4.25%32.26%
4.00%–4.25%32.74%
4.00%–4.25%31.64%
4.00%–4.25%31.24%
4.00%–4.25%33.06%
4.00%–4.25%32.62%
4.00%–4.25%32.80%
4.00%–4.25%32.45%
3.75%–4.00%33.57%
4.00%–4.25%32.81%
4.00%–4.25%32.30%
3.75%–4.00%35.30%
3.75%–4.00%35.15%
3.75%–4.00%35.34%
3.75%–4.00%35.07%
3.75%–4.00%35.91%
3.75%–4.00%37.21%
3.75%–4.00%33.18%
4.00%–4.25%33.70%
4.00%–4.25%34.14%
4.00%–4.25%33.19%
4.00%–4.25%35.16%
3.75%–4.00%34.49%
4.00%–4.25%35.08%
4.00%–4.25%35.97%
4.00%–4.25%34.88%
4.00%–4.25%35.29%
4.00%–4.25%34.57%
4.00%–4.25%34.54%
4.00%–4.25%34.30%
4.00%–4.25%33.51%
4.00%–4.25%32.46%
4.00%–4.25%33.94%
4.00%–4.25%33.70%
4.00%–4.25%33.97%
3.75%–4.00%33.97%
3.75%–4.00%35.33%
3.75%–4.00%37.21%
4.00%–4.25%32.58%
4.00%–4.25%33.15%
4.00%–4.25%33.13%
3.75%–4.00%33.08%
4.00%–4.25%32.76%
3.75%–4.00%33.29%
3.75%–4.00%35.84%
3.75%–4.00%35.05%
4.00%–4.25%32.06%
3.75%–4.00%33.38%
3.75%–4.00%35.56%
3.75%–4.00%37.02%
3.75%–4.00%35.23%
3.75%–4.00%34.47%
4.00%–4.25%33.11%
4.00%–4.25%33.61%
4.00%–4.25%32.99%
3.75%–4.00%32.19%
3.75%–4.00%39.90%
3.75%–4.00%39.44%
3.75%–4.00%37.37%
3.75%–4.00%37.96%
3.75%–4.00%34.03%
3.75%–4.00%34.43%
3.75%–4.00%31.43%
4.00%–4.25%31.57%
3.75%–4.00%38.25%
3.75%–4.00%36.59%
3.75%–4.00%39.23%
3.75%–4.00%39.59%
3.75%–4.00%40.29%
3.75%–4.00%40.56%
3.75%–4.00%40.23%
3.75%–4.00%39.71%
3.75%–4.00%34.74%
3.75%–4.00%37.77%
3.75%–4.00%39.30%
3.75%–4.00%34.82%
3.75%–4.00%37.40%
3.75%–4.00%37.69%
3.50%–3.75%40.23%
3.50%–3.75%42.13%
3.75%–4.00%39.44%
3.50%–3.75%52.59%
3.50%–3.75%57.04%
3.50%–3.75%51.02%
3.50%–3.75%58.22%
3.50%–3.75%45.28%
3.50%–3.75%43.12%
3.50%–3.75%59.12%
3.50%–3.75%58.86%

来源与口径

数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。