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2027-04-28 FOMC 会议概率历史

追踪市场对 2027-04-28 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供最新累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。

最新数据点：（美东交易日） · 首个有效历史点：2026-03-19 · 有效历史点：163
累计加息概率0.00%
累计维持概率4.50%
累计降息概率95.50%
最新最大概率目标区间为 3.50%–3.75%，概率 95.50%；较上一有效交易日变化 +5.00 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +22.50 pp。

最新目标利率区间概率分布

目标利率区间概率
3.50%–3.75%9550.00%
3.75%–4.00%450.00%
4.00%–4.25%0.00%
4.25%–4.50%0.00%
4.50%–4.75%0.00%

最大概率区间历史

“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。

美东交易日最大概率区间该区间概率
3.50%–3.75%95.50%
3.50%–3.75%90.50%
3.50%–3.75%76.50%
4.25%–4.50%95.50%
4.25%–4.50%78.50%
4.25%–4.50%73.00%
4.25%–4.50%79.00%
4.25%–4.50%86.00%
4.50%–4.75%55.20%
4.25%–4.50%78.48%
4.25%–4.50%91.59%
4.25%–4.50%92.20%
4.25%–4.50%52.05%
4.25%–4.50%51.84%
4.50%–4.75%68.16%
4.50%–4.75%55.16%
4.25%–4.50%53.88%
4.50%–4.75%61.66%
4.50%–4.75%59.70%
4.50%–4.75%67.59%
4.25%–4.50%64.84%
4.25%–4.50%61.84%
4.25%–4.50%61.63%
4.50%–4.75%54.37%
4.50%–4.75%76.59%
4.25%–4.50%58.86%
4.25%–4.50%57.77%
4.50%–4.75%96.09%
4.50%–4.75%96.95%
4.50%–4.75%70.70%
4.50%–4.75%95.79%
4.50%–4.75%74.14%
4.50%–4.75%96.36%
4.50%–4.75%74.14%
4.50%–4.75%71.36%
4.50%–4.75%65.14%
4.50%–4.75%64.14%
4.50%–4.75%75.82%
4.25%–4.50%89.00%
4.25%–4.50%86.00%
4.25%–4.50%83.00%
4.25%–4.50%74.00%
4.25%–4.50%33.60%
4.00%–4.25%33.94%
4.00%–4.25%34.65%
4.00%–4.25%34.88%
4.00%–4.25%34.63%
4.00%–4.25%34.28%
4.00%–4.25%34.13%
4.00%–4.25%35.12%
4.00%–4.25%34.32%
3.75%–4.00%32.90%
3.75%–4.00%34.27%
3.75%–4.00%35.60%
3.75%–4.00%32.87%
3.75%–4.00%34.00%
3.75%–4.00%37.13%
3.75%–4.00%37.05%
3.75%–4.00%36.86%
3.75%–4.00%36.62%
3.75%–4.00%37.43%
3.75%–4.00%38.67%
3.75%–4.00%34.81%
4.00%–4.25%33.77%
4.00%–4.25%34.47%
3.75%–4.00%33.66%
4.00%–4.25%35.60%
3.75%–4.00%35.03%
4.00%–4.25%35.17%
4.00%–4.25%36.34%
4.00%–4.25%35.38%
4.00%–4.25%35.40%
4.00%–4.25%34.71%
4.00%–4.25%34.73%
4.00%–4.25%34.43%
4.00%–4.25%33.62%
4.00%–4.25%32.78%
4.00%–4.25%34.06%
4.00%–4.25%34.09%
4.00%–4.25%34.18%
3.75%–4.00%33.99%
3.75%–4.00%35.40%
3.75%–4.00%37.51%
4.00%–4.25%32.83%
4.00%–4.25%33.83%
4.00%–4.25%34.14%
3.75%–4.00%33.09%
4.00%–4.25%33.78%
3.75%–4.00%33.33%
3.75%–4.00%36.35%
3.75%–4.00%35.31%
4.00%–4.25%33.44%
3.75%–4.00%33.41%
3.75%–4.00%36.10%
3.75%–4.00%37.98%
3.75%–4.00%35.70%
3.75%–4.00%34.68%
4.00%–4.25%34.17%
4.00%–4.25%34.38%
4.00%–4.25%34.23%
4.00%–4.25%32.54%
3.75%–4.00%40.38%
3.75%–4.00%39.82%
3.75%–4.00%37.82%
3.75%–4.00%38.38%
3.75%–4.00%34.54%
3.75%–4.00%34.94%
3.75%–4.00%32.46%
4.00%–4.25%31.58%
3.75%–4.00%38.59%
3.75%–4.00%37.04%
3.75%–4.00%39.23%
3.75%–4.00%39.59%
3.75%–4.00%40.29%
3.75%–4.00%40.56%
3.75%–4.00%40.23%
3.75%–4.00%39.71%
3.75%–4.00%34.74%
3.75%–4.00%37.77%
3.75%–4.00%39.30%
3.75%–4.00%35.32%
3.75%–4.00%38.29%
3.75%–4.00%38.54%
3.50%–3.75%40.23%
3.50%–3.75%42.13%
3.75%–4.00%39.44%
3.50%–3.75%53.13%
3.50%–3.75%58.84%
3.50%–3.75%52.12%
3.50%–3.75%60.26%
3.50%–3.75%45.88%
3.50%–3.75%43.47%
3.50%–3.75%61.21%
3.50%–3.75%60.94%
3.50%–3.75%59.44%
3.50%–3.75%73.65%
3.50%–3.75%67.75%
3.50%–3.75%58.18%
3.50%–3.75%75.85%
3.50%–3.75%67.48%
3.50%–3.75%60.67%
3.50%–3.75%43.33%
3.50%–3.75%40.62%
3.50%–3.75%63.24%
3.50%–3.75%56.16%
3.50%–3.75%55.38%
3.50%–3.75%60.20%
3.50%–3.75%65.03%
3.50%–3.75%59.92%
3.50%–3.75%64.01%
3.50%–3.75%73.08%
3.50%–3.75%70.59%
3.50%–3.75%68.50%
3.50%–3.75%64.25%
3.50%–3.75%68.16%
3.50%–3.75%71.77%
3.50%–3.75%69.45%
3.50%–3.75%51.90%
3.50%–3.75%65.79%
3.50%–3.75%58.34%
3.50%–3.75%67.63%
3.50%–3.75%60.93%
3.50%–3.75%71.37%

来源与口径

数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。