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2026-10-28 FOMC 会议概率历史

追踪市场对 2026-10-28 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供结束前最后一次累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。

该会议已于 2026-10-28 结束，本页作为历史档案保留，数值为会议结束前最后一次采集快照（美东 2026-10-27）。查看当前市场预期请回到首页或会议历史。
最新数据点：（美东交易日） · 首个有效历史点：2025-09-18 · 有效历史点：280
累计加息概率7.20%
累计维持概率92.80%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 3.75%–4.00%，概率 92.80%；较上一有效交易日变化 +3.32 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +9.96 pp。

最新目标利率区间概率分布

目标利率区间概率
3.75%–4.00%9280.00%
4.00%–4.25%720.00%
4.25%–4.50%0.00%
4.50%–4.75%0.00%
4.75%–5.00%0.00%

最大概率区间历史

“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。

美东交易日最大概率区间该区间概率
3.75%–4.00%92.80%
3.75%–4.00%89.48%
3.75%–4.00%90.59%
3.75%–4.00%92.80%
3.75%–4.00%85.05%
3.75%–4.00%82.84%
3.75%–4.00%82.84%
3.75%–4.00%82.84%
3.75%–4.00%72.88%
3.75%–4.00%67.34%
3.75%–4.00%77.30%
3.75%–4.00%78.41%
3.75%–4.00%82.84%
3.75%–4.00%82.84%
3.75%–4.00%80.63%
3.75%–4.00%80.63%
3.75%–4.00%78.41%
3.75%–4.00%77.86%
3.75%–4.00%71.77%
3.75%–4.00%62.91%
3.75%–4.00%52.95%
4.00%–4.25%70.30%
4.00%–4.25%64.21%
4.00%–4.25%70.86%
4.00%–4.25%68.64%
4.00%–4.25%53.14%
4.00%–4.25%55.36%
4.00%–4.25%53.14%
4.00%–4.25%53.14%
3.75%–4.00%50.18%
3.75%–4.00%60.00%
3.75%–4.00%60.00%
3.75%–4.00%68.00%
3.75%–4.00%64.00%
3.75%–4.00%55.53%
3.75%–4.00%54.76%
3.75%–4.00%54.42%
3.75%–4.00%54.42%
3.75%–4.00%49.73%
3.75%–4.00%55.61%
3.75%–4.00%57.30%
3.75%–4.00%57.23%
3.75%–4.00%52.66%
3.50%–3.75%47.41%
3.50%–3.75%47.93%
3.50%–3.75%45.66%
3.75%–4.00%45.98%
3.50%–3.75%46.83%
3.50%–3.75%51.19%
3.50%–3.75%53.59%
3.50%–3.75%51.19%
3.50%–3.75%51.19%
3.50%–3.75%53.59%
3.50%–3.75%51.50%
3.75%–4.00%45.20%
3.75%–4.00%49.26%
3.75%–4.00%50.94%
3.75%–4.00%47.39%
3.75%–4.00%51.90%
3.75%–4.00%52.08%
3.75%–4.00%53.95%
3.75%–4.00%57.30%
3.75%–4.00%56.46%
3.75%–4.00%56.29%
3.75%–4.00%53.01%
3.75%–4.00%46.63%
3.75%–4.00%44.18%
3.75%–4.00%44.60%
3.75%–4.00%45.02%
3.75%–4.00%45.62%
3.75%–4.00%47.53%
3.75%–4.00%49.92%
3.75%–4.00%49.01%
3.75%–4.00%47.11%
3.75%–4.00%45.28%
3.75%–4.00%48.43%
3.75%–4.00%43.64%
3.75%–4.00%46.60%
3.75%–4.00%47.57%
3.75%–4.00%46.42%
3.75%–4.00%46.90%
3.75%–4.00%45.65%
3.75%–4.00%46.06%
3.75%–4.00%46.43%
3.75%–4.00%46.54%
3.75%–4.00%46.03%
3.75%–4.00%45.58%
3.75%–4.00%45.92%
3.75%–4.00%46.00%
3.75%–4.00%45.76%
3.75%–4.00%44.29%
3.75%–4.00%44.88%
3.75%–4.00%44.12%
3.50%–3.75%61.13%
3.50%–3.75%62.59%
3.50%–3.75%60.70%
3.50%–3.75%59.05%
3.50%–3.75%49.74%
3.50%–3.75%50.12%
3.50%–3.75%45.02%
3.50%–3.75%47.41%
3.50%–3.75%62.92%
3.50%–3.75%59.29%
3.50%–3.75%63.64%
3.50%–3.75%64.31%
3.50%–3.75%72.18%
3.50%–3.75%68.56%
3.50%–3.75%67.09%
3.50%–3.75%63.55%
3.50%–3.75%48.31%
3.50%–3.75%54.41%
3.50%–3.75%66.51%
3.50%–3.75%55.59%
3.50%–3.75%65.64%
3.50%–3.75%67.02%
3.50%–3.75%74.63%
3.50%–3.75%78.56%
3.50%–3.75%76.66%
3.50%–3.75%82.82%
3.50%–3.75%81.46%
3.50%–3.75%79.16%
3.50%–3.75%77.90%
3.50%–3.75%73.21%
3.50%–3.75%75.79%
3.50%–3.75%83.94%
3.50%–3.75%84.82%
3.50%–3.75%94.27%
3.50%–3.75%83.87%
3.50%–3.75%77.95%
3.50%–3.75%67.98%
3.50%–3.75%80.64%
3.50%–3.75%81.30%
3.50%–3.75%79.61%
3.50%–3.75%66.58%
3.50%–3.75%59.33%
3.50%–3.75%81.36%
3.50%–3.75%78.33%
3.50%–3.75%77.35%
3.50%–3.75%80.70%
3.50%–3.75%88.68%
3.50%–3.75%83.44%
3.50%–3.75%91.31%
3.50%–3.75%90.56%
3.50%–3.75%82.60%
3.50%–3.75%88.08%
3.50%–3.75%84.16%
3.50%–3.75%85.49%
3.50%–3.75%87.10%
3.50%–3.75%74.50%
3.50%–3.75%54.61%
3.50%–3.75%77.80%
3.50%–3.75%62.78%
3.50%–3.75%84.53%
3.50%–3.75%68.01%
3.50%–3.75%92.04%
3.50%–3.75%59.89%
3.50%–3.75%41.95%
3.50%–3.75%43.32%
3.50%–3.75%50.09%
3.50%–3.75%57.25%
3.25%–3.50%41.53%
3.25%–3.50%39.32%
3.25%–3.50%40.63%
3.25%–3.50%37.98%
3.25%–3.50%40.86%
3.25%–3.50%39.41%
3.25%–3.50%36.12%
3.25%–3.50%33.91%
3.00%–3.25%35.19%
3.00%–3.25%34.71%
3.00%–3.25%34.61%
3.00%–3.25%35.21%
3.00%–3.25%35.73%
3.00%–3.25%35.56%
3.00%–3.25%35.41%
3.00%–3.25%35.64%
3.00%–3.25%35.30%
3.00%–3.25%34.52%
3.00%–3.25%35.33%
3.00%–3.25%35.04%
3.00%–3.25%34.24%
3.00%–3.25%34.92%
3.00%–3.25%35.07%
3.00%–3.25%34.45%
3.00%–3.25%33.90%
3.00%–3.25%33.40%
3.00%–3.25%33.59%
3.00%–3.25%34.79%
3.00%–3.25%33.45%
3.00%–3.25%33.30%
3.00%–3.25%33.66%
3.25%–3.50%33.37%
3.25%–3.50%35.25%
3.25%–3.50%35.92%
3.25%–3.50%34.38%
3.25%–3.50%33.36%
3.25%–3.50%34.30%
3.25%–3.50%32.92%
3.00%–3.25%34.02%
3.00%–3.25%33.99%
3.00%–3.25%33.30%
3.00%–3.25%33.65%
3.00%–3.25%33.63%
3.00%–3.25%33.46%
3.00%–3.25%33.06%
3.00%–3.25%32.95%
3.00%–3.25%33.14%
3.00%–3.25%33.18%
3.00%–3.25%32.71%
3.00%–3.25%32.63%
3.00%–3.25%32.99%
3.00%–3.25%33.48%
3.00%–3.25%33.35%
3.00%–3.25%32.78%
3.00%–3.25%32.47%
3.00%–3.25%31.78%
3.00%–3.25%32.34%
3.00%–3.25%32.31%
3.00%–3.25%32.84%
3.00%–3.25%33.02%
3.00%–3.25%33.15%
3.00%–3.25%32.45%
3.00%–3.25%31.12%
3.00%–3.25%31.49%
3.00%–3.25%31.33%
3.00%–3.25%31.24%
3.00%–3.25%30.20%
3.00%–3.25%30.75%
3.00%–3.25%31.26%
3.00%–3.25%30.25%
3.00%–3.25%29.56%
3.00%–3.25%28.84%
3.00%–3.25%29.31%
3.00%–3.25%28.15%
3.00%–3.25%28.37%
3.00%–3.25%29.29%
3.00%–3.25%29.13%
3.00%–3.25%29.10%
3.00%–3.25%29.03%
3.00%–3.25%29.19%
3.00%–3.25%29.25%
3.00%–3.25%29.17%
3.00%–3.25%29.51%
3.00%–3.25%29.49%
3.00%–3.25%29.76%
3.00%–3.25%29.65%
3.00%–3.25%29.72%
3.00%–3.25%29.89%
3.00%–3.25%29.72%
3.00%–3.25%30.18%
3.00%–3.25%29.20%
3.00%–3.25%29.64%
3.00%–3.25%29.70%
2.75%–3.00%28.99%
2.75%–3.00%29.19%
2.75%–3.00%30.64%
2.75%–3.00%30.76%
2.75%–3.00%30.54%
2.75%–3.00%30.24%
2.75%–3.00%30.59%
2.75%–3.00%29.44%
2.75%–3.00%29.70%
2.75%–3.00%29.55%
3.00%–3.25%28.99%
3.00%–3.25%30.56%
3.00%–3.25%30.39%
3.00%–3.25%30.39%
3.00%–3.25%30.94%
3.00%–3.25%30.45%
3.00%–3.25%30.09%
3.00%–3.25%30.44%
3.00%–3.25%30.59%
3.00%–3.25%29.79%
3.00%–3.25%29.54%
3.00%–3.25%29.09%
3.00%–3.25%29.73%
3.00%–3.25%29.60%
3.00%–3.25%29.53%
3.00%–3.25%29.23%
3.00%–3.25%28.84%

来源与口径

数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。