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2026-09-16 FOMC 会议概率历史

追踪市场对 2026-09-16 FOMC 会议后目标利率区间的概率分布。页面同时提供结束前最后一次累计加息、维持、降息概率，以及过去一年的最大概率区间历史。

该会议已于 2026-09-16 结束，本页作为历史档案保留，数值为会议结束前最后一次采集快照（美东 2026-09-16）。查看当前市场预期请回到首页或会议历史。
最新数据点：（美东交易日） · 首个有效历史点：2025-09-11 · 有效历史点：255
累计加息概率92.39%
累计维持概率7.61%
累计降息概率0.00%
最新最大概率目标区间为 3.75%–4.00%，概率 92.39%；较上一有效交易日变化 +0.00 pp，较 5 个有效交易日前变化 +31.18 pp。

最新目标利率区间概率分布

目标利率区间概率
3.50%–3.75%761.00%
3.75%–4.00%9239.00%
4.00%–4.25%0.00%
4.25%–4.50%0.00%
4.50%–4.75%0.00%

最大概率区间历史

“最大概率区间”是每个快照中概率最高的一档目标利率区间，日期为对应的美东交易日。区间标签切换时，数值序列会直接连接到新的最高概率档。

美东交易日最大概率区间该区间概率
3.75%–4.00%92.39%
3.75%–4.00%92.39%
3.75%–4.00%86.61%
3.75%–4.00%87.29%
3.75%–4.00%72.36%
3.75%–4.00%61.21%
3.75%–4.00%59.43%
3.75%–4.00%59.43%
3.50%–3.75%50.57%
3.75%–4.00%63.21%
3.75%–4.00%67.21%
3.75%–4.00%65.43%
3.75%–4.00%57.00%
3.50%–3.75%64.57%
3.50%–3.75%63.36%
3.50%–3.75%60.36%
3.50%–3.75%58.57%
3.50%–3.75%60.14%
3.50%–3.75%63.93%
3.50%–3.75%66.93%
3.50%–3.75%63.93%
3.50%–3.75%63.93%
3.50%–3.75%66.93%
3.50%–3.75%66.14%
3.50%–3.75%59.36%
3.50%–3.75%51.57%
3.75%–4.00%52.21%
3.50%–3.75%55.57%
3.75%–4.00%55.00%
3.75%–4.00%54.43%
3.75%–4.00%58.43%
3.75%–4.00%67.21%
3.75%–4.00%67.00%
3.75%–4.00%63.43%
3.75%–4.00%57.11%
3.75%–4.00%55.78%
3.75%–4.00%55.74%
3.75%–4.00%55.34%
3.75%–4.00%57.26%
3.75%–4.00%54.81%
3.75%–4.00%54.49%
3.75%–4.00%55.05%
3.75%–4.00%51.22%
3.50%–3.75%47.59%
3.50%–3.75%51.54%
3.75%–4.00%50.05%
3.75%–4.00%51.20%
3.75%–4.00%51.22%
3.75%–4.00%50.04%
3.75%–4.00%50.62%
3.75%–4.00%49.10%
3.75%–4.00%46.24%
3.75%–4.00%46.09%
3.75%–4.00%49.85%
3.75%–4.00%50.63%
3.75%–4.00%48.34%
3.75%–4.00%46.82%
3.75%–4.00%48.51%
3.75%–4.00%49.32%
3.75%–4.00%50.99%
3.75%–4.00%52.46%
3.75%–4.00%49.87%
3.50%–3.75%45.14%
3.50%–3.75%70.44%
3.50%–3.75%72.14%
3.50%–3.75%71.50%
3.50%–3.75%67.83%
3.50%–3.75%61.70%
3.50%–3.75%62.46%
3.50%–3.75%57.33%
3.50%–3.75%60.41%
3.50%–3.75%72.05%
3.50%–3.75%69.81%
3.50%–3.75%74.98%
3.50%–3.75%76.05%
3.50%–3.75%79.17%
3.50%–3.75%75.23%
3.50%–3.75%73.61%
3.50%–3.75%71.46%
3.50%–3.75%60.33%
3.50%–3.75%64.39%
3.50%–3.75%74.54%
3.50%–3.75%67.41%
3.50%–3.75%77.69%
3.50%–3.75%81.22%
3.50%–3.75%85.77%
3.50%–3.75%90.46%
3.50%–3.75%90.05%
3.50%–3.75%90.42%
3.50%–3.75%86.40%
3.50%–3.75%87.87%
3.50%–3.75%84.00%
3.50%–3.75%86.60%
3.50%–3.75%88.33%
3.50%–3.75%85.52%
3.50%–3.75%84.82%
3.50%–3.75%98.58%
3.50%–3.75%83.87%
3.50%–3.75%79.71%
3.50%–3.75%72.76%
3.50%–3.75%82.45%
3.50%–3.75%85.07%
3.50%–3.75%85.27%
3.50%–3.75%74.87%
3.50%–3.75%66.62%
3.50%–3.75%85.13%
3.50%–3.75%83.81%
3.50%–3.75%84.78%
3.50%–3.75%84.39%
3.50%–3.75%90.65%
3.50%–3.75%87.23%
3.50%–3.75%95.50%
3.50%–3.75%92.52%
3.50%–3.75%88.21%
3.50%–3.75%90.07%
3.50%–3.75%88.02%
3.50%–3.75%87.40%
3.50%–3.75%87.10%
3.50%–3.75%77.95%
3.50%–3.75%59.91%
3.50%–3.75%79.56%
3.50%–3.75%67.25%
3.50%–3.75%86.23%
3.50%–3.75%72.85%
3.50%–3.75%92.04%
3.50%–3.75%65.71%
3.50%–3.75%48.37%
3.50%–3.75%49.96%
3.50%–3.75%54.96%
3.50%–3.75%61.31%
3.25%–3.50%42.31%
3.25%–3.50%42.84%
3.25%–3.50%43.03%
3.25%–3.50%41.84%
3.25%–3.50%43.17%
3.25%–3.50%43.79%
3.25%–3.50%41.43%
3.25%–3.50%40.72%
3.00%–3.25%36.06%
3.25%–3.50%38.84%
3.25%–3.50%39.53%
3.25%–3.50%37.96%
3.00%–3.25%36.03%
3.25%–3.50%36.97%
3.00%–3.25%35.65%
3.00%–3.25%36.49%
3.00%–3.25%36.67%
3.00%–3.25%37.71%
3.00%–3.25%36.40%
3.25%–3.50%35.90%
3.00%–3.25%36.08%
3.00%–3.25%36.43%
3.00%–3.25%36.13%
3.00%–3.25%35.96%
3.25%–3.50%37.08%
3.25%–3.50%37.75%
3.25%–3.50%37.18%
3.00%–3.25%35.09%
3.25%–3.50%36.45%
3.25%–3.50%37.62%
3.25%–3.50%35.71%
3.25%–3.50%37.60%
3.25%–3.50%38.82%
3.25%–3.50%39.40%
3.25%–3.50%38.38%
3.25%–3.50%36.92%
3.25%–3.50%37.80%
3.25%–3.50%37.08%
3.00%–3.25%34.65%
3.00%–3.25%34.22%
3.25%–3.50%34.15%
3.00%–3.25%33.68%
3.00%–3.25%34.81%
3.00%–3.25%35.00%
3.00%–3.25%34.33%
3.00%–3.25%34.59%
3.00%–3.25%34.55%
3.00%–3.25%34.63%
3.00%–3.25%34.39%
3.00%–3.25%34.38%
3.00%–3.25%34.30%
3.00%–3.25%34.54%
3.00%–3.25%34.17%
3.00%–3.25%33.97%
3.00%–3.25%33.92%
3.00%–3.25%33.41%
3.00%–3.25%33.76%
3.00%–3.25%33.72%
3.00%–3.25%33.85%
3.00%–3.25%33.74%
3.00%–3.25%33.95%
3.00%–3.25%32.77%
3.25%–3.50%32.45%
3.00%–3.25%31.78%
3.00%–3.25%32.06%
3.00%–3.25%32.45%
3.00%–3.25%32.20%
3.00%–3.25%32.47%
3.00%–3.25%32.68%
3.00%–3.25%32.40%
3.00%–3.25%32.10%
3.00%–3.25%31.69%
3.00%–3.25%31.75%
3.00%–3.25%30.57%
3.00%–3.25%30.10%
3.00%–3.25%30.26%
3.00%–3.25%30.23%
3.00%–3.25%29.79%
3.00%–3.25%29.60%
3.00%–3.25%30.01%
3.00%–3.25%30.47%
3.00%–3.25%30.54%
3.00%–3.25%30.37%
3.00%–3.25%30.73%
3.00%–3.25%30.90%
3.00%–3.25%30.00%
3.00%–3.25%30.84%
3.00%–3.25%30.89%
3.00%–3.25%30.64%
3.00%–3.25%31.20%
3.00%–3.25%30.27%
3.00%–3.25%31.48%
3.00%–3.25%31.63%
3.00%–3.25%30.95%
3.00%–3.25%30.25%
2.75%–3.00%31.13%
2.75%–3.00%31.13%
2.75%–3.00%30.72%
2.75%–3.00%30.41%
2.75%–3.00%31.25%
3.00%–3.25%30.20%
3.00%–3.25%29.80%
3.00%–3.25%30.22%
3.00%–3.25%30.98%
3.00%–3.25%31.53%
3.00%–3.25%31.42%
3.00%–3.25%31.56%
3.00%–3.25%32.04%
3.00%–3.25%31.78%
3.00%–3.25%31.61%
3.00%–3.25%31.94%
3.00%–3.25%31.54%
3.00%–3.25%30.33%
3.00%–3.25%29.98%
3.00%–3.25%29.35%
3.00%–3.25%30.81%
3.00%–3.25%30.84%
3.00%–3.25%30.76%
3.00%–3.25%30.65%
3.00%–3.25%30.43%
3.00%–3.25%30.09%
2.75%–3.00%28.64%
3.00%–3.25%28.89%
3.00%–3.25%29.75%
2.75%–3.00%28.96%

来源与口径

数据来自 CME FedWatch Tool / QuikStrike Aggregated View 与 Historical Downloads。本站每个美东交易日在收盘后的休市间隙采集一次（北京时间次日 05:30 / 06:30），一个点 = 该交易日的收盘定格，不保证与稍后打开的盘中实时值相同。详细说明见方法页，完整 CSV 见数据下载页。